South Central Illinois could see another colder and wet winter, similar to last year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the Winter Weather Outlook for the 2011-2012 season. NOAA predicts colder and wetter conditions in the North, and drought conditions continuing in the South, with warmer and drier conditions. Meteorologist Gary Schmocker of the National Weather Service in St. Louis says the area could experience near-normal temperatures with precipitation slightly above average. He says there is a possibility that this winter may not be as extreme as last winter. However he states precipitation will be above average east of St. Louis, heading into South Central Illinois, Indiana, and the Ohio River Valley. "If this outlook verifies, then areas towards Salem, Illinois verses St. Louis may have a little of a higher likelihood of getting above normal precipitation for the winter", said Schmocker. South Central Illinois experienced significant sleet and freezing rain from a winter storm last February. Schmocker states there could be some significant cold air outbreaks this winter, and he says it's hard to tell when they will occur. He says we are heading into a weak-to-moderate La Nina pattern just like last winter. La Nina is the cooling of the Pacific Ocean that affects the weather. However he states it could be a weaker La Nina than last year. Schmocker says last year's La Nina pattern was stronger, and that the area experienced below normal temperatures and above normal snowfall across the Missouri-Illinois area. "It's very hard to say about snowfall because sometimes you could get one big snowstorm and that could make a world of difference. When you look back at averages, it only takes one big snowstorm to sometimes create above normal snowfall for the winter", said Schmocker. He says the St. Louis area saw 30 inches of snow last year, above the average of 18 inches. Schmocker says the St. Louis weather service office forecasts a week ahead. Long range forecasting is done by NOAA and other weather service bureaus. Jpjr6
